This study provides a quantitative analysis and forecast of the South African fixed line and mobile voice services markets as a whole, and a more detailed focus on the largest segments.

Quantitative analysis and forecasts

A key objective of this study is to provide up-to-date market sizing and forecasts, while illustrating the major trends currently and those expected in the next five years. These include: fixed mobile substitution, fixed mobile convergence, service bundling, flat rate pricing, interconnection pricing including the effects of regulatory changes on voice services, services-based competition and drivers and enablers for widespread VoIP uptake.

The study is based on a combination of primary and secondary research and analysis, including an update of BMIT’s baseline voice services model.

The underlying market model is a top-down model based on information collected from service providers (i.e. where broad data on revenues, subscribers, and ARPUs are available from operators), and bottom-up (number of connections/subscriptions per customer group, service penetration, traffic minutes by route, and average revenue per line or service per customer group). The analysis is also informed by BMIT’s most recent corporate and SME user surveys. Forecasts are based on a market scenario analysis, which includes a review of international trends as well as the specific nuances of the local South African environment, including future regulatory and competitive industry dynamics.

Segmentation

Traditional voice services

  • Fixed and mobile voice services market overview segmentation and forecast
  • Segmentation by service type and route/destination
  • Segmentation by number of connections, traffic minutes by route, and average revenue per line or service per customer group

Emerging voice services

  • Minutes of use including substitution analysis between dominant routings to mobile network and all VoIP routings
  • Emergence of converged and mobile SIP offerings
  • SIP services provided by traditional PSTN players (Telkom and Neotel) vs alternative voice players’ VoIP services
  • Revenue forecasts

Key questions answered:

  • What is the size and shape of the voice services market in South Africa?
  • Which service categories will grow (or shrink) the fastest in future?
  • What technology trends will have the greatest impact?
  • Fixed mobile convergence: when and how will this impact?
  • Outlook for VoIP/SIP versus other emerging alternative voice services.
  • How will the fortunes of various broad categories of players play out in future?
  • What will be the impact of regulatory trends on the market?